Investment points Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations. 24Q1 realized revenue of 124.9 billion yuan, compared with the same month-on-month ratio of + 4%, with net profit of 4.6 billion yuan, net profit of + 11%, net profit of 47%, deduction of non-return net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, and same month-on-month comparison of + 5% and 59% respectively.Beamngdrivecrash; gross profit margin 22%, same month ratio + 4pct/+0Beamngdrivecrash.7pct, the net interest rate of return to the mother is 3.7%, the same month compared with + 0.2pct/-1.2pct, deducting the non-return net interest rate of 3%, unchanged from the same period last year, with a decrease in 2.1pct. 24Q1 sales fell 34 per cent, exports bucked the trend, and installed capacity fell 41 per cent. Q1 electric car sales of 626000, compared with the same month-on-month compared with + 76% Uniqure 34%, export 98000, with the same month-on-month ratio + 153% Uniqure 1%. Q1 destroyer 05, new model yuan up contributed the main increment, 19,000,000 respectively, high-end models (momentum, look up) accounted for 4.4%, month-on-month slightly increased 0.4pct. Orders have recovered significantly since March after the price reduction, reaching 70,000 to 80,000 vehicles a week, and we expect Q2 sales to be about 800000 vehicles, an increase of 27%. The company's high-end models will be made up, with the launch of the Tengli 3 and equation Leopard series in 24 years, and look up to U7 and U9. We expect to sell 360-3.9 million vehicles in 24 years, an increase of 25%. From a structural point of view, we expect that in 24 years, the equation leopard 100000 +, momentum 100000 +, look up to about 20,000 vehicles, high-end cars account for about 7%, improve 3pct, we expect to export 450000 vehicles, an increase of 80%. Q1 accumulatively installs 30GWh, with a month-on-month ratio of + 10% Universe 41%. We expect 24-year battery production 240gwh, an increase of 37%. Q1 bicycle profit declined month-on-month, Q2 scale effect is expected to improve. The average price of Q1 is 160000 yuan, down 8%. If deducting the electronic profit of BYD (about 600 million yuan of Q4, corresponding to 400 million yuan of equity), we estimate that the net profit of Q1 bike is 0.67 w, and the ring drop is about 24%. It is Q1 to launch a number of glorious version models. Dynasty price reduction of 20,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan, ocean price reduction of 0.4 yuan to 22000 yuan, Tengli price reduction of 1 yuan to 16000 yuan, the order recovered significantly in March after the price reduction, and the Q1 operating rate was low and the rising cost was low. Q2 scale effect reflects, bicycle profit is expected to increase month-on-month. Considering the structural optimization brought about by high-end and export volume and the reduction in the cost of vehicle parts, which can partially offset the decline in prices, we expect a 24-year profit of about RMB0.7-8000. The expense rate is higher than the previous month, and the operating cash flow is outstanding. During the Q1 period, the fee is 21 billion yuan, compared with the same month + 47 percent, the expense rate is 16.8 percent, and the same month is compared with + 5/+2.6pct, resulting in a total impairment loss of 1 billion yuan, and a total impairment loss of 28 percent compared with + 34 percent. Q1 net operating cash flow of 10.2 billion yuan, year-on-year-29%, net cash flow of investment activities-27.3 billion yuan, year-on-year-20%; capital expenditure 26.1 billion yuan, year-on-year-19%. The inventory at the end of Q1 was 98.8 billion yuan, an increase of 13% over the beginning of the year, and the contract debt was 38.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the beginning of the year. Profit forecast and investment rating: taking into account the gradual increase in the contribution of the company's high-end models, we raised the 24-26 homing net profit forecast to RMB 352 billion (the original forecast value is RMB 323), an increase of 17%, 20% and 20%, respectively, corresponding to the PE of 1815 26xPE 13x, with a target price of 314.6 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating. Risk hint: electric vehicle sales are not as good as expected and policies are not as expected. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
