There is only one trading day left from the "May Day" holiday, holding shares or holding currency is an inescapable choice for investors.
According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, in the past 10 years, the "May Day" post-holiday A-share market on the first trading day is relatively flat, but the rising probability is relatively high.
The reporter interviewed a number of private equity firms and found that with the recent recovery of market sentiment, private equity firms' mentality towards the market has changed significantly. Many private equity firms believe that although the current A-share market has rebounded for some time, the overall stock index is still on the low side, and market bullish forces will dominate the market trend in the context of continued policy efforts and the return of foreign capital.
The probability of rising on the first day after the festival is higher.
With the approach of the May Day holiday, investors pay more attention to the market performance after the holiday.
According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, in the past 10 years, the overall performance of the market is relatively lacklustre on the first trading day after the May Day holiday, exceptLegendsultimateminiOutside 2016 and 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell by less than 1% on the day. However, in terms of the rising probability, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising on the first day after the festival in the past 10 years is 60%, which is relatively high.
The probability of rising in the five trading days after the festival is relatively low. In the past 10 years, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the five trading days after the festival is 40%, of which the declines in 2015, 2016 and 2019 are all more than 3%. For the whole month of May, the rising probability of the Shanghai Composite Index is 50%, and the fluctuation in that month is relatively large, including a rise of 4% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.Legendsultimatemini.89%, 4Legendsultimatemini.57%, down 5.84% in 2019 and 3.57% in 2023.
However, historical data can only be used as a reference, and how the market performs after the May Day holiday this year still needs to be verified by the market. The reporter interviewed private equity firms and found that with the recent upward rebound in the market and the obvious pick-up in investor sentiment, private equity firms' views on the market are undergoing positive changes.
Hu Kunchao, investment manager of Cheese Fund, told the Securities Times that the overall valuation of A shares is low and the downside risk is limited. In terms of fundamentals, the macroeconomic sector exceeded expectations in the first quarter, and the economic recovery continued. During the long May Day holiday, various consumption data are likely to exceed expectations and have a certain catalytic effect on the capital market. In terms of the market, the introduction of the new "National Nine articles" will benefit the ecology of the entire A-share market, guide the long-term healthy and steady development of the capital market, and guide the A-share market to a mature market. The recent increase in Huijin's holdings in four major banks shows to some extent its confidence in China's banking industry and the long-term growth potential of China's economy, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. In addition, in May, the quarterly report has been disclosed, the performance is not as good as expected, the pullback is also relatively sufficient, the future bullish force will dominate the market trend.
According to the research view of Huajin Securities, there is little risk during the May Day holiday and shares can be held for the holidays. First, holiday spending data are likely to boost the economy and earnings repair expectations. "May Day" travel, consumption may be more popular, profit rebound is expected to rise. Second, overseas data may disrupt liquidity expectations during the holidays, but remain loose at home. First, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may have a certain risk of disturbance during the May Day period.LegendsultimateminiSecond, pre-holiday financing may flow out seasonally, but foreign capital may continue to flow in. In addition, the geopolitical risk during the holiday period is limited, and the risk of a sharp correction in overseas stock markets is likely to be small.
Nearly 60% of the private equity recommendations hold shares.
April 30 will be the last trading day before the May Day holiday. When it comes to whether to hold shares or money after the holiday, nearly 60% of private equity proposals should hold shares for the festival, and less than 10% of private equity companies think that they should hold money for the holiday.
According to the survey results of private placement network, 59.57% of private equity suggestions hold shares during the festival, believing that there is limited room for the market to fall; 31.91% of private equity suggestions are split in half, mainly because they are worried about the uncertainty during the long holiday; another 8.51% of private equity suggestions hold currency for the festival.
As for the market performance after the May Day holiday, 51.06% of private placements are optimistic about the post-holiday market, believing that the effect of the one-quarter report landing overlay policy will gradually appear, so they are optimistic about the post-holiday market; 36.17% of private placements hold a neutral attitude towards the post-holiday market and believe that the market will continue to fluctuate; another 12.77% of private placements are cautious about the future.
The May Day holiday lasts for a long time, according to past experience, during this period, a series of uncertain news may be found at home and abroad, which will have a certain potential impact on the market. Bao Xiaohui, chairman of Changli Asset, told the Securities Times that although the overall upward trend of the A-share market will not change, the uncertainty of the market during this period may have an impact on the domestic stock market after the festival. therefore, it is suggested that maintaining a certain cash position can reduce the risk of position and increase the safety of investment.
Chen Shi, Mingze investment fund manager, believes that the recent market performance has shown a series of positive signals, indicating that it is a high probability event that the future market will continue to strengthen. With the release of performance risk, the positive inflow of foreign capital and the strong support of policies, the success rate of shareholding is high, and the future performance is worth looking forward to. The continuous introduction of government policies has not only boosted the confidence of investors, but also had a direct and positive impact on the market.
At the same time, taking into account the positive signals of foreign capital inflows and the continued introduction and landing of policies conducive to economic recovery, the long-term growth potential of the market has been further confirmed. The buying spree of foreign investors, especially the peak of capital inflows rarely seen in history, shows the confidence of international investors in the Chinese market. At present, the A-share market is at the bottom. With the intensive disclosure of annual reports and first-quarter results in April, performance risks have landed, the growth of some industries has been further verified, and market sentiment is expected to gradually pick up. After the horizontal market shock in March-April, the market is expected to launch a new round of rally.
Yuan Meiyang, manager of the Quirong Asset Fund, said that there are certain positive factors in the current market. Under the lower expectations of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, compared with emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, the advantage of RMB exchange rate stability is highlighted. As the dividend rate of A shares continues to rise, the Internet buyback of Hong Kong stocks accelerates, and foreign capital tends to return. However, at present, the improvement logic of consumption, export and real estate is difficult to extrapolate, the elasticity of demand-side improvement is still not high, the short-term market still lacks a clear plate direction, the market rotation is fast, and the short-term market may still be dominated by shocks.
