Newsletter summary
The supply and demand of asphalt is weak, the inventory is historically low, and the infrastructure investment is high. The United States imposed oil and gas sanctions on Venezuela or affected the supply of crude oil, suggesting that the asphalt market wait and see.
Text of news flash
The supply and demand of asphalt market is weak, investors suggest to wait and see.
The supply side of the asphalt market has emerged recently.InitialdthearcadeContracted to a certain extent. According to the latest data, the operating rate of asphalt is lower than that of last month.Initialdthearcade2.Initialdthearcade.2 percentage points to 27.Initialdthearcade.2%, a new low for the same period in recent years. Affected by profits and losses, some refineries are unable to complete their production tasks as planned. At the same time, after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, although the downstream operating rate of asphalt has rebounded, it is still lower than the level of the same period in previous years. Although the start of road asphalt has returned to the level of mid-December, basically the same as the same period last year, but the overall market supply is still tight.
Judging from the inventory situation, the inventory ratio of asphalt rose sharply during the Spring Festival and fell somewhat last week, but it is still at an all-time low. The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds proposed in the government work report is expected to help ease the financial pressure on local governments, and infrastructure investment will remain high. The market is generally concerned about whether the follow-up asphalt infrastructure can be further pulled.
However, at present, the demand and supply of asphalt market are under pressure. Although shipments have rebounded, the rebound is not obvious. The continuous rainy weather in the south has adversely affected the demand for asphalt. In the spot market, asphalt prices in Shandong have stabilized after a period of decline.
Internationally, the United States announced that it would re-impose oil and gas sanctions on Venezuela. According to the requirements of the United States, all activities related to Venezuelan oil and gas transactions must be stopped by May 31. However, some companies can apply for specific US licenses related to activities in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector. This news may lead to an increase in the discount of Marie crude oil, which in turn affects the price of asphalt.
Considering the above factors, analysts suggest that investors take a wait-and-see attitude towards the asphalt market. At present, the price of crude oil is disturbed by the geopolitics of the Middle East, high shock and great market uncertainty. Investors should pay close attention to the relevant policy trends and changes in market supply and demand, and make investment decisions cautiously.
