According to a research report released by Societe Generale Securities, China Hongqiao (01378) "buy" rating is maintained, and the annual return net profit in 24-25-26 is expected to be 202 respectively.Silverballarcade.73 / 204.36 / 20.56 billion yuan. Since April, aluminum prices continue to break through the 20, 000 yuan level, and the cost side continues to fall, and Q2 continues to be highly profitable. The bank estimates that the current Hongqiao Shandong branch ton net profit is about 3700 yuan. Yunnan branch ton net profit is close to 3000 yuan level, 2024 will continue high elastic performance release.
Event: Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Hongqiao, released Q1 results: revenue increased 6.1% year-on-year to 34.76 billion yuan, and net profit increased 6.3 times to 4.34 billion yuan.
The main points of Societe Generale Securities are as follows:
Demand resilience has exceeded expectations, driving aluminum prices to continue to rise, and benefiting from the downward cost of coal price-anode-liquid alkali, the profit of electrolytic aluminum tons continues to expand at both ends, especially the relatively high proportion of purchased coal.SilverballarcadeThe macro bridge fully releases the flexibility of performance.
Volume: the operating capacity of 24Q1 remains stable, and the bank's estimated production is flat on a month-on-month basis.
Price: demand resilience exceeded expectations, promoting aluminum prices to continue to rise, 24Q1 Yangtze River aluminum ton unit price increased by 82 yuan to 19047 yuan.
Cost-profit: the cost side has been falling since the beginning of the year. The unit price of 24Q1 Qinhuangdao thermal coal ton dropped by 56 yuan to 902 yuan from the previous month, and the estimated pull cost decreased by about 250 yuan; the unit price of liquid alkali ton dropped by 141 yuan to 1239 yuan from the previous month, and the estimated pull ton cost decreased by about 100 yuan; the anode ton unit price dropped by 340 yuan to 5088 yuan, and the estimated pulling cost decreased by about 160 yuan. The bank estimates that the cost of Q1 Shandong branch tons decreased by about 500 yuan to 12400 yuan from the previous month, while the net profit per ton increased by about 400 yuan to 2500 yuan, while the net profit per ton of Yunnan division increased by nearly 200 yuan to nearly 2000 yuan.
The total amount of Q1 three fees is basically unchanged at 1.2 billion yuan from the previous month. The debt at the end of the period increased by 810 million yuan to 50.59 billion yuan from the previous month. Performance flexibility was fully released, and Q1 net profit increased by 1.26 billion yuan / + 41% to 4.34 billion yuan from the previous month.
Take a stake in the northern development of Simangge Iron Mine, which is expected to be put into production in 2026, opening up the company's long-term growth space.
In March 2024, the company announced that it had a 24% stake in the northern mining area of Simandu Iron Mine through Weiqiao Aluminum Power, a non-wholly-owned subsidiary (94.52%). The estimated reserves in the northern area of Simandu Iron Mine are more than 1.8 billion tons and are expected to be put into production in 2026.
