The Hong Kong market is picking up quickly!
These days, the trend of Hong Kong stocks is very strong. In early trading today, all three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.02%, the Hang Seng Technology Index up 1.74%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.96%. Science and Internet stocks rose, JD.com (09618.HK) rose nearly 5%, NetEase (09999.HK) rose nearly 2%, Weibo (09898.HK), Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) and so on rose.
At the same time, heavy benefits have also come one after another.
First of all, last Friday, the CSRC announced five measures for co-operation with Hong Kong, including relaxing the scope of ETF products, incorporating REITs, supporting RMB trading counters, optimizing mutual recognition of funds and unblocking financing channels for listing. The new rules will help smooth the interconnection mechanism, introduce capital flow into Hong Kong's capital market and enhance liquidity.
Second, in early trading this morning, UBS upgraded Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, China to overweight, and downgraded Taiwan and South Korea to neutral, according to a report learned by brokerage Chinese reporters. In addition, UBS upgraded Chinese stocks to overweight, saying the consumer and Internet sectors accounted for a high proportion of stocks in the MSCI China index and were expected to perform better as consumption showed signs of picking up.
Third, the foreign exchange shock in the Asia-Pacific region gradually subsided. In early trading this morning, during the speech by Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, the yen gradually strengthened and the dollar index began to fall. Recent volatility in peripheral financial markets seems to show signs of reining in.
The running water of Hong Kong stocks
In the past two days, Hong Kong stocks have been much better than A shares, mainly because of the big profit last Friday. Tencent Holdings rose more than 5% yesterday and more than 2% in early trading today, largely due to improved liquidity.
On Friday, the CSRC announced five measures for co-operation with Hong Kong, including broadening the scope of ETF products, including REITs, supporting RMB trading counters, optimizing mutual recognition of funds and unblocking financing channels for listing. The new rules will help smooth the interconnection mechanism, introduce capital flow into Hong Kong's capital market and enhance liquidity.
Huatai Securities said that at present, there are eight Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF, with a total fund size of HK $191.5 billion, simply screening Hong Kong stock ETF with an average daily assets of not less than HK $550 million in the past six months and investing in Hong Kong. Under the new rules, the number of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF may be expanded to 21, and the size of the fund will increase to HK $245 billion (the original rule: 14 / HK $237 billion). At the same time, the new regulations include REITs in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect for the first time, and 3 of the 11 REITs in Hong Kong may meet the inclusion criteria in terms of average market capitalization and liquidity in the first 12 months.
Guotai Junan believes that the lower threshold for the inclusion of the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF will help significantly increase the number and scale of targets; the inclusion of RMB stock counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect will attract more RMB funds into the Hong Kong stock market and further enhance the activity and transaction scale of Hong Kong stocks. In addition, the introduction of a market maker mechanism, coupled with stamp duty relief, will enhance the enthusiasm of market makers to participate in arbitrage and enhance the activity of Hong Kong stock trading. At present, the average daily turnover of REITs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is relatively low, and the inclusion of REITs in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect measures will attract domestic and foreign capital inflows and enhance market liquidity.
Foreign investors are bullish on the stock market
In early trading today, UBS upgraded Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, China to overweight, and downgraded Taiwan and South Korea to neutral.
UBS raised its Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks to overweight on the grounds that earnings were strong despite concerns about China's real estate and macro situation, according to the report. The largest stocks in the China index generally perform well in terms of earnings / fundamentals. As a result, China's poor performance is purely due to a collapse in valuations. " Strategists such as Sunil Sunil Tirumalai wrote in a report on Tuesday.
In addition, UBS upgraded Chinese stocks to overweight, saying the consumer and Internet sectors accounted for a high proportion of stocks in the MSCI China index and were expected to perform better as consumption showed signs of picking up. UBS pointed out in the report that China's holiday consumption data are strong so far this year, listed consumer goods companies have performed better than overall consumption in the economy, and any rebound in consumer confidence means that household savings are likely to flow to consumption and the market. UBS is more optimistic about corporate profits.
Strategists say the brokerage is funding China's upgrade by downgrading Taiwan and South Korea to neutral, given that the industry is "relative to its"SunpuracasinoThe premium in other regions is at its highest level in a decade, "and the optimism in technology stocks is being digested.
In March, foreign giant Morgan Stanley said in its latest report that global money was returning to the Chinese stock market. The withdrawal of long-term global investors from the Chinese stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) has pressed the pause button as some funds have eased their bearish sentiment on the Chinese market. Pressing the pause button may be an early sign that overseas money managers are reconsidering their asset allocation across the region. The meaning of the indicators at that time was very clear.
On April 14, Goldman Sachs released its latest report, pointing out that in view of the more favorable policy sensitivity and eye-catching liquidity dynamics of the A-share market, it remains strategically optimistic about the A-share market. It is expected that A-shares and H-shares will have potential room to rise by 12% and 8% respectively in the next 12 months.
Volatility convergence of foreign exchange market
Recently, fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have becomeSunpuracasinoThe source of volatility in the global equity market. The dollar index continues to rise, putting great pressure on it. But recently, the pressure has been abating.
First of all, judging from the source of the US dollar, the increase in international oil prices has slowed down. U.S. president Joe Biden's legislation to tighten sanctions on Iranian crude oil is expected to become law as early as this week, but he is likely to be cautious about the use of new powers. Oil market analysts said Biden would be reluctant to do anything that might raise crude oil or gasoline prices. Policy experts say Biden may use the immunity of the sanctions provisions to avoid strict enforcement of the sanctions.
Second, from the yen's point of view, this morning, the governor of the Bank of Japan finally showed up to confront concerns. He said monetary policy would depend on the economy and inflation. If inflation moves towards 2 per cent, the degree of easing will be adjusted. There is no predetermined idea about the timing and speed of future interest rate increases. If trend inflation accelerates in line with forecasts, the degree of monetary support will be adjusted by raising interest rates. For now, loose monetary policy conditions need to be maintained for some time. Against this background, the depreciation of the yen has been curbed today. Most non-US currencies have also appreciated.
Finally, from the perspective of the RMB, the RMB has actually been relatively strong recently. The CITIC Securities (600030) research report released today believes that since the beginning of 2024, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable and weak, with a cumulative depreciation of 1.97% against the US dollar as of April 19. The main reason was that U.S. employment and inflation data exceeded expectations, which led to a cooling of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and a strengthening of the US dollar index. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates about once this year. The European Central Bank may be the first to cut interest rates. The widening interest rate spread between the United States and Europe will support the strength of the US dollar, thus bringing depreciation pressure on the RMB. However, this year the central bank has sufficient foreign exchange management tools and has the will and ability to maintain exchange rate stability. Even a small devaluation in the second and third quarters of this year will not exceed 7.35.
Proofreading: Wang Chaoquansunpuracasino?sunpuracasino???
