Source: quick Molding Point of View
Review of PP market
01
Review of PP spot Market
The PP market is running at a high level this week. Although oil prices fell for a time,Daiwatdsol3But the Israeli raid on Iran on Friday spurred a surge in oil prices, and cost-side support remained strong. There are still many PP maintenance devices on the spot side, but the overall demand is weak, after offsetting the supply and demand, the petrochemical goes to the warehouse normally, the futures run at a high level, and the spot price changes little.
02
Review of PP Futures Market
PP futures run high this week and broke through the previous high on Friday under the stimulation of the situation in the Middle East, but the situation stabilized and returned to the concussion range without an effective breakthrough. At present, there is still resistance near the front high after the PP disk failed to effectively break through, but there is a certain degree of support at the bottom of the low point, coupled with the fundamentals PP multi-short interlaced, it is expected that PP futures prices will continue to fluctuate.
03
PP cost side analysis
Oil prices fluctuated widely this week. The situation in the Middle East eased for a time, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates or postponed, and there were signs of a break in the sharp fall in oil prices, but the situation in the Middle East was tense again on Friday, and oil prices rose sharply at one time, but then all kinds of news emerged one after another, and oil prices gave up their gains after the shock. At present, the oil price has temporarily fallen below the $90 mark, the price of PP is firm, and the loss of oil-made PP has improved slightly, currently at 1200-1300 yuan / ton.
04
PP supply Analysis-operating rate
This week, PP operating rate rebounded to around 84%, but with the shutdown of Maoming, Sinopec and other plants, PP operating rate fell back to 81% again. At present, the maintenance of PP is concentrated, and the operating rate is expected to remain low, but some new devices will be put into production in the later stage to offset the good maintenance.
05
PP supply Analysis-maintenance Summary
06
Downstream demand Analysis of PP
Overall PP demand held steady this week, lukewarm. At present, the macro is weak, real estate and infrastructure demand collapse, dragging down the demand of other industries, PP terminal enterprise orders are insufficient, obviously less than the same period in previous years. In the later stage, the replacement of household appliances and cars is expected to be introduced, and the aggregate demand is expected to improve.
07
Petrochemical inventory analysis
The speed of going to the warehouse of Sinopec has slowed down slightly this week, and go to the library 7 within the week.Daiwatdsol3.50 million tons, less than 100000 tons went to the warehouse last week. Although there are still many petrochemical overhauls, it has been weakened compared with the previous period, especially the PP operating rate has rebounded compared with last week, and the demand is as weak as ever, which leads to a slight slowdown in the speed of removing the storehouse, but considering that the overall operating rate of polyolefin is still on the low side, there is no inventory pressure under the background of alleviating supply pressure.
08
Negative analysis
[Ledo]
Entering the maintenance season, the supply pressure has been greatly alleviated.
The oil price is high, and the cost support is strong.
The trade-in policy for home appliances and cars is expected to be introduced.
[bearish]
Poor macro, weak demand, superimposed off-season.
Facing the pressure of putting the new plant into production in the medium and long term.
09
Outlook for the future
Recently, the supply pressure of PP overhaul has been increased, but the demand is weak, and there is no clear direction for PP under the multi-empty interweaving. But the early PP maintenance benefit has been fermented, the weak demand is difficult to improve, the cost end support is weakened in the near future, the resistance above the PP is expected to be large, and there is even a risk of loosening in the near future.
Review of PE market
01
Review of PE spot Market
PE ex-factory price statistics
PE market price statistics
The PE market rose mainly this week, with a range of 50-200 yuan / ton. This week, maintenance equipment continues to increase, supply pressure continues to ease, market resources are tight, downstream factory procurement is more active, after rigid demand replenishment, the impact of downstream start-up load decline weakens, the macro side is good to boost, especially the weekend geo-conflict news ferment market mentality is better, prices rise mainly, the basis remains weak.
North China market LLDPE mainstream 9350-9500 LLDPE mainstream 8300-8850; East China market LLDPE mainstream 9380-9650 LLDPE mainstream 8500-8700; South China market mainstream 9350-8700 LLDPE mainstream 8450-8800.
02
Analysis of PE Futures Market
This week, the main force of plastic finishing, MACD index red column maintenance, KDJ index trend is weak, increasing positions upward, the shadow line is longer, the average line maintains a long arrangement, the weekly average is in a rising cycle, the net long position is obvious, the price is pulled, the whole maintains a range of 8350-8500 shocks. Next Sunday, the main plastic or maintain the interval finishing, pay attention to the breakthrough pressure level.
03
Cost and profit Analysis of PE
Petrochemical cost and profit
International oil price futures fell, according to Brent 87.11, the cost of benchmarking LL is about 9772, the ex-factory price of high LL is about 1422, and the cost support is slightly weakened.
Import cost and profit
The mainstream price of PE import linear dollar rose this week, at 970-1005, translating RMB cost in 8500-8800, market mainstream 8400-8450, high domestic linear 8400-350. the price spread widened.
04
Analysis of operating rate of PE plant
After the PE device stopped and started this week, the start-up load rose to about 84%, + 1% from last week and-5% from the same period last year. PE units Hainan Refining and Chemical HDPE, Zhejiang Petrochemical HDPE, Guangdong Petrochemical full density, Zhongtian Hechuang LDPE, Yangzi Petrochemical HDPE plan to start, PE start-up load increased slightly.
05
Downstream demand Analysis of PE
This week, the start-up load of agricultural film fell by 7% to about 29%, the number of days of raw material inventory decreased slightly, the number of order days shortened, the production of plastic film ended, demand further weakened, and the operating rate dropped significantly. In the future, the off-season of agricultural film is coming, the start of work is expected to further reduce, the support for PE raw materials is limited, and the demand for raw materials of agricultural film enterprises has a weakening trend. In the later stage, the support of agricultural film enterprises to PE raw materials was further weakened.
This week, the start-up load of PE packaging film fell by about 1% to 52%, the number of order days decreased, the number of days of raw material inventory extended, and the profit margin improved to some extent, which is still supported. In the future, the start of PE packaging film is expected to improve, with the heat of the weather and the rigid demand of the holiday terminal to buy, some frozen food packaging, fresh-keeping packaging film is still expected to improve, the support of polyethylene is better.
06
Inventory analysis of polyolefin petrochemical
As of April 19, petrochemical polyolefin inventory of 805000 tons, compared with last week-30, 000 tons, inventory fell slightly. Mainly because the downstream raw material inventory is low, the market resources are tight, the demand exceeds expectations, the transaction volume can still be released; secondly, because the supply is tight and the macro-positive release boosts confidence, petrochemical inventory is slightly removed.
Next week, near the end of the month, petrochemical will stop sales and settle accounts one after another, and the weight is expected to decrease, while near the May Day holiday, there are expectations of stock in the lower reaches, lack of market confidence in the future, positive pre-sale expectations, and a small increase in the increase in driving equipment. so petrochemical inventories are expected to fall slightly next week.
07
market prediction
Downstream factory start-up load is expected to maintain, agricultural film industry fell rapidly, but packaging film, pipe and other demand is expected to rise, as well as pre-festival stock expectations, support is OK.
PE has no new maintenance devices and plans to start up more devices, but the market resources are tight at the end of the month and the supply is expected to remain tight.
The supply-side tightening pattern continues, the demand-side pressure increases, the geographical impact is weakening, support is weakened after the easing of the situation, and the dollar and demand prospects are also under pressure, international crude oil futures have room to fall; the domestic macro side remains warm.
08
Summary
Next week PE pressure is not big, supply reduction and stock expectations are greater support, the pressure lies in the agricultural film industry demand transition to the off-season and cost support is expected to weaken. After prices continue to rise, the market is also worried about the decline after the May Day holiday, and there is also the possibility of pre-sale at a low price in advance. Next week, the PE market may remain strong, do not rule out the possibility of negative decline.
